Midlothian

Midlothian sits in northwest Ellis County on US-287, between Mansfield and Waxahachie. Like Crowley, Godley and Cleburne, it's a new-construction market: nearly six in ten houses sold here in the last three years were built this decade. Unlike them, it isn't falling. It's the exception on the south side, and the reasons are worth understanding.

Over the three years ending September 2026, Midlothian produced 3,011 closed sales at a median of $489,990. I'm a Texas broker and a Certified Residential Appraiser. Here is what those sales show.

Resale is rising slightly. New construction is discounting quietly.

Controlling for house size, lot size and build year, Midlothian values overall have moved +0.35% a year (p = 0.35), which is flat. It stays flat excluding the largest subdivision, Westside Preserve (+0.62%), and on houses of 2,000–3,200 square feet (+0.22%).

Underneath that, the two halves are moving in opposite directions:

Midlothian is the only market south of Fort Worth where resale values are measurably rising. The rise is small, about 1% a year, and at the edge of significance, but it's the opposite of Crowley, where resale is falling 2.6% a year.

The new-construction decline is harder to see, because the builders aren't cutting the sticker:

List prices and price per foot have barely moved. The median concession on a new house nearly tripled, from $5,400 to $15,000, and new houses now close at about 93% of their original list price. The discount is in the concessions and the negotiation, not the price tag. That's why the new-construction trend is negative even though the per-foot figure looks flat.

Why Midlothian is different

I can't give you a cause from sales data alone, but I can tell you what's different about the market.

• It's higher priced. The resale median is $455,000, against $287,500 in Crowley and $272,000 in Cleburne. New construction here is aimed at move-up buyers, not first-time buyers.
• Buyers use less FHA. 20% of buyers used FHA, against 41% in Crowley and about half of new-construction buyers in Cleburne.
• New construction is priced above resale. A new house here is $516,000 against a $455,000 resale median, a $60,000 gap. In Crowley it has ranged from about $30,000 to $50,000. A resale seller isn't competing head-to-head with a cheaper new house.
• It transacts. Only 11.4% of properties that came to market never sold, the lowest of any market I've measured south of Fort Worth.

What it costs

• Median close $489,990 on 2,640 square feet, about $190 per foot
• Median lot 10,001 square feet; 21% of sales on an acre or more
• Closed prices ran $81,521 to $1,950,000
• Median 63 days on market at 95.4% of original list
• 64% of sales carried seller concessions, at a $10,000 median
• Effective property tax rate on resales about 1.79%
• 76% carry HOA dues, at a $600 median. In new subdivisions it's 96%, at $750
• 26% of resales had a pool
• Parcel-level failure rate 11.4%

Midlothian is in Ellis County, so it has a different appraisal district and tax rates from the Tarrant and Johnson County markets on this site. On a brand-new house, the tax figure in the listing usually reflects the lot before the house was finished. It averages 0.36% here, which isn't what you'll pay. Budget from the resale rate and confirm with the Ellis County appraisal district.

The two halves of the market look like this:

Land

Midlothian had 151 closed land sales over the same three years, at a median of $160,000 on 1.03 acres.

Land prices here have been flat (−2.1% a year, not significant). Land is slow, though: a median of 128 days to sell.

About 45% of land parcels that came to market never sold, and 59% of the ones that did were bought with cash. Price acreage from closed land sales, not from what's listed.

Across the south side, the price of an acre lines up with which markets are holding:

The three most expensive, Mansfield, Burleson and Midlothian, are all flat or rising on resale. The two cheapest, Godley and Cleburne, are both falling overall. It isn't a perfect line, since Granbury sits in the middle and is falling, but it fits the pattern in new construction: where land is expensive, builders have a harder time undercutting the resale market.

One development, two districts, and a result that flips

Most of Midlothian is Midlothian ISD (2,849 site-built sales). About 144 sales are in Waxahachie ISD, and across the whole city they come out about 7% higher.

But much of the Waxahachie ISD portion is inside one development, BridgeWater, which straddles the line. Within BridgeWater alone, controlling for size, lot and build year, the Waxahachie ISD houses sell about 15% lower. They're mostly the builder's "Discovery" and "Inspiration" collections: a $438,184 median on 2,565 square feet, against $549,900 on 2,896 square feet on the Midlothian ISD side.

So the district effect is +7% one way and −15% the other, depending on which houses you compare. That isn't a school premium or discount. It's the product. The district boundary and the builder's product lines are the same houses, and the data can't separate them. I'm not reporting a school effect for Midlothian, and within BridgeWater the collection matters more than the district.

What I could not measure

Water. Twenty-three sales were flagged as waterfront. Controlling for everything else, they came out about 4% higher, at p = 0.26. That's not a measurable premium.

The lot, mostly. Across the city, lot size barely moves price (a coefficient of 0.04), because most sales are new houses on similar subdivision lots. Among houses built before 2020, the lot coefficient is 0.13, so on older stock and acreage the land does matter.

Next door: Ovilla and Oak Leaf

Ovilla and Oak Leaf sit just northeast of Midlothian, toward the Dallas County line, with 295 closed sales between them over the same three years (237 in Ovilla, 58 in Oak Leaf). Each has its own page — Ovilla and Oak Leaf — and here is how they compare with Midlothian. They're a different kind of market: older, larger lots, and more acreage.

Values are flat: −0.40% a year across both (p = 0.67), and flat on older and newer houses separately. Median price per foot slipped from about $198 to $190 over the window, but on this few sales that's within the noise. Resales sell in a median of 42 days, and 36.5% have a pool, the highest share I've measured south of Fort Worth.

New construction here is priced far above resale. The 54 new houses sold at a $702,500 median on 3,906 square feet, against $523,000 for resales, a gap of about $180,000. That's wider even than Mansfield, and it fits the pattern: where new construction is a different, more expensive product, resale holds. The builders are negotiating, though. 83% of new-home sales carried concessions, at a median of $25,000, and new houses closed at about 93% of original list. Most of the new product is in Broadmoor Estates and Bryson Manor.

Two school districts, and a difference that holds up. Ovilla is split between Midlothian ISD (109 sales) and Red Oak ISD (119). Oak Leaf is entirely Red Oak ISD. Within Ovilla, controlling for size, lot, build decade and date, the Red Oak ISD side sells about 6% lower (p = 0.002), and about 8% lower on houses of 1,800–3,600 square feet. Unlike BridgeWater, the difference doesn't come from one builder's product line: it shows up on older houses too. On acreage the gap narrows and isn't measurable. It's a small sample, so I'd treat it as a range of roughly 5–8% rather than a precise figure. Confirm the district for any specific address.

Land is thin here: 16 closed land sales in Ovilla and 3 in Oak Leaf. Excluding a few finished houses that were coded as land, an acre in Ovilla has run about $150,000–170,000, about the same as Midlothian.

How Midlothian compares

Across the south side, the new-construction markets that are falling hardest are the cheapest, with the most FHA buyers and the smallest gap between new and resale prices. Midlothian is the counter-example: plenty of new construction, but priced for a different buyer, with a resale market that's holding and edging up.

This isn't just a local quirk. I tested it across 19 markets and 40,703 closed sales: the size of the lot predicts which houses are losing value better than the town does, with subdivision lots down about 1% a year and acreage up about 1%.

What I look at in a Midlothian house

• New or resale, and if new, the actual net price after concessions. The sticker isn't the price.
• Which builder and which collection, in developments like BridgeWater where product lines differ by 15% or more.
• The school district, confirmed for the address, but priced from the product rather than the boundary.
• The HOA, which at $750 in new subdivisions is higher than most of the south side.
• On 2000s resales: roof, HVAC and water heater are at or past their first replacement.
• The tax figure, which on new construction usually doesn't reflect the finished house.

If you're selling in Midlothian

If you're selling a resale house, you're in the best resale position on the south side: values edging up, a median of 39 days to contract, and new construction priced well above you. The builders' concessions are your real competition, so know what a buyer is being offered on a new house nearby and what it works out to after incentives.

If you bought new in the last few years, check what your builder is selling the same plan for today, net of concessions. That's the number a buyer will compare you with.

On pre-listing work, the order matters more than the budget. What to fix before you list, and in what order tests fourteen improvements against 33,000 closings. If the work needs doing and the cash is tied up, Compass Concierge covers it up front and is repaid at closing.

Buying or selling in Midlothian

Three thousand sales, six in ten built this decade, builders holding their sticker prices while tripling concessions, a resale market that's edging up, and the lowest failure rate on the south side.

What I can tell you is what the closed sales on houses like yours actually support, and, if you're comparing with new construction, what the builder's price really is once the incentives are counted.

Browse active listings in this price range, or call or text (682) 207-4310, or send me a note.

Figures are medians and model results from NTREIS listings and closed sales with a Midlothian address for the three years ending September 2026, reported in aggregate. "New construction" means a house sold in or within a year after its build year. School attendance boundaries, tax rates, HOA dues and market conditions change. Confirm current figures for a specific address before relying on them. Nothing here is an appraisal or a valuation of any particular property.