Keller

Keller sits north of Fort Worth between Southlake and the Alliance corridor, almost entirely inside Keller ISD. Over the three years ending September 2026 it produced 1,734 closed sales across 358 subdivisions, at a median of $665,000.

I'm a Texas broker and a Certified Residential Appraiser. Keller is the clearest demonstration I have found anywhere in this county of something I first measured in Ridglea, six miles west of downtown Fort Worth and at a third of the price: in some markets, what you are buying is the land.

Values are rising

Controlling for house size, lot size and build year, values in Keller are up 1.89% a year, at p = 0.0001. Single-family only returns +2.11% (p < 0.0001); excluding anything built since 2020 returns +1.58% (p = 0.0009). It holds.

Median price per foot by year: $229, $229, $232, $237. Median close: $650,000, $650,000, $672,000, $691,500.

That makes Keller one of only three markets I have found in Tarrant County that is genuinely appreciating — alongside Southlake at 4.77% and Colleyville at 2.39%. All three sit in the same northeastern quadrant, and all three are expensive.

The transaction numbers are strong too: median 17 days, closings at 98.0% of original list, 34.1% under contract within a week, and a parcel-level failure rate of 12.2%.

I like big lots and I cannot lie

Every agent in America has made that joke. I'm making it because in Keller it happens to be a defensible valuation position, and I have the numbers to show it.

Here is the finding that should govern how a Keller house gets priced.

The correlation between lot size and price per square foot is 0.587. Against house size it is 0.130 — barely anything.

For comparison, that same correlation in Ridglea — the neighborhood where I first found this and built a page around it — is 0.36. In Bedford it is 0.052. In Hurst, 0.056. Keller's land effect is roughly sixty percent stronger than the strongest example I had previously measured, and about ten times what the Mid-Cities show.

The practical consequence is large and it runs both directions:

A modest house on a Keller acre is worth far more than its square footage implies. The top 3% of lots trade at $343 a foot against $221 at the bottom — a 55% per-foot premium that has nothing to do with the house. Price one of these off a subdivision average and you will be badly under.

And a large house on a small lot is worth less than the per-foot figure suggests. The bottom quartile carries 2,350-square-foot houses on 7,057-foot lots at $221. That is a perfectly good market — it is simply not the same market as the acreage.

Proving it with the land itself

A correlation is an inference. Keller happens to have enough vacant land trading that I can test the claim directly, which is what an appraiser would do anyway.

Over the same three years, 85 vacant lots closed in Keller. They price the land on its own, with no house attached:

Land gets cheaper per square foot as the parcel gets bigger, which is ordinary. What's useful is that it gives me a price for the dirt under every improved sale in the city.

So I took all 1,726 improved sales, priced each lot at the rate for its size, subtracted that land value from the sale price, and looked at what was left — the value of the house alone:

The 55% per-foot premium on Keller's biggest lots disappears entirely once the land is removed. The houses themselves come out at $122 to $160 a foot across every lot class. Whatever makes a big-lot Keller property expensive, it isn't the house.

And on the largest lots, more than half the purchase price is land. That is the whole argument of this page in one number.

One caution worth stating. The house-only figures actually fall on the biggest lots, which could mean those houses are genuinely lesser — older homes sitting on legacy acreage — or could mean my land rate for the largest band is slightly high, since it rests on thirteen sales. I'd put more weight on the direction than on the exact figures at the top. The central finding does not depend on it: the premium is land.

The land market is also far slower than the housing market. Vacant lots here took a median 79 days to sell at 95.6% of asking, against seventeen days for houses. Land is worth a great deal in Keller, and it is not liquid.

Two ZIP codes, and one of them is the acreage

The 76262 side carries lots more than three times the size, a $430,000 higher median, a lower tax rate and far fewer HOAs. It is 12% of Keller's sales and an entirely different proposition. Anyone quoting you a citywide Keller per-foot figure is averaging across that gap.

What it costs

• Median close $665,000 on 3,008 square feet — about $232 per foot
• Median lot 11,979 square feet; median build year 1999
• Closed prices ran $177,000 to $4,750,000
• Effective property tax rate about 1.56%
• 45.8% of sales had a pool; 67% carry HOA dues at a $642 median
• 45.0% closed with seller concessions

On vintage: the model returns +0.98% per year, significant at p < 0.0001, which across stock spanning the 1970s to 2025 is a substantial adjustment. Be careful reading it off the raw per-foot figures, though — those run $249 for the 1970s, $215 for the 1990s and $291 for the 2020s, a U-shape that is really the size effect in disguise. The 1990s houses are the largest in the city at a 2,845-square-foot median, which drags their per-foot figure down. That is precisely the trap this whole site exists to point at.

The school district is the baseline, not a variable

1,723 of 1,734 sales are Keller ISD. Unlike North Richland Hills, where a Keller-zoned corner carries a 12.1% premium over Birdville, or Euless, where the Grapevine-Colleyville line is worth 8.4%, there is no meaningful boundary inside Keller to measure.

That is useful in itself. It means the largest single adjustment in most northeast Tarrant valuations simply doesn't apply here — and the variation that shows up in the price is coming from the lot, the size and the condition instead.

What I look at in a Keller house

• The lot, first and by a wide margin. It is the strongest predictor of price per foot I have measured in this county. A comparable set built from a subdivision average rather than from a lot class will be wrong, often badly.
• Which ZIP. 76262's acreage is a different market from 76248's subdivisions, and the per-foot figures are $77 apart.
• Square footage, but carefully. The size coefficient is 0.657 — well below proportional, which means a per-foot multiplication overstates large houses and understates small ones.
• Build year. About 1% per year, and don't read it off raw per-foot figures, which are contaminated by size.
• HOA dues and what they cover, on the two-thirds of the market that carries them at a $642 median.
• Roof, HVAC and windows. A median 1999 build puts all three at or past the end of their first service life, and in North Texas hail sets the roof clock rather than the shingle rating.

How Keller compares

Keller is the most affordable of the three appreciating markets and the one with the most volume. It is also the one where the lot does the most work, which means the spread between a well-priced Keller house and a badly-priced one is wider than the medians suggest.

Against the other end of the county, the contrast is stark: across Fort Worth, seventeen of thirty-six measurable ZIP codes are losing value, concentrated in the cheapest half of the city.

If you're selling in Keller

You are in an appreciating market with seventeen days to contract and a third of buyers committing inside a week. That is a strong position.

The thing that decides your number is your lot, and it is the variable most likely to be got wrong. If you are on a quarter-acre or more, a comparable set drawn from your subdivision's per-foot average will underprice you — the top 3% of Keller lots carry a 55% per-foot premium over the bottom quarter, and that premium is invisible in any average.

On the pre-listing work, the order matters more than the budget. I tested fourteen common improvements against 33,000 closings in what to fix before you list, and in what order — three measured at zero. If the work needs doing and the cash is tied up in the house, Compass Concierge covers it up front and is repaid at closing.

Buying or selling in Keller

Seventeen hundred sales, three hundred and fifty-eight subdivisions, one school district, two ZIP codes seventy-seven dollars a foot apart, and the strongest relationship between land and value I have measured anywhere in Tarrant County — confirmed by eighty-five sales of the land itself.

What I can tell you is what the closed sales on houses your size and your lot class actually support, how wide the range around that is, and what the property will cost every month once the assessment resets and the dues are in the number.

Browse active listings in this price range, or call or text (682) 207-4310, or send me a note.

Figures are medians and model results from NTREIS listings and closed sales in Keller for the three years ending September 2026, reported in aggregate. School attendance boundaries, tax rates, HOA dues and market conditions change — confirm current figures for a specific address before relying on them. Nothing here is an appraisal or a valuation of any particular property.