Justin

Justin sits in southwest Denton County on FM 156, north of Fort Worth's Alliance corridor, almost entirely inside Northwest ISD. It's a small town that has become one of the busiest new-construction markets north of Fort Worth: three-quarters of the houses sold here in the last three years were built this decade, and most of them on small subdivision lots.

Over the three years ending September 2026, Justin produced 1,523 closed sales at a median of $400,000. I'm a Texas broker and a Certified Residential Appraiser. Here is what those sales show.

Falling, and the resale houses with it

Controlling for house size, lot size and build year, Justin values are down 1.44% a year, at p < 0.001. It holds with build-decade controls (−1.35%) and gets steeper when I exclude the largest development, Shale Creek (−1.91%).

The resale market is falling faster than new construction. That's the Crowley pattern, and the reason is the same: new and resale are selling at the same price.

• New: $404,888 median on 2,170 square feet, $181 a foot, on a median lot of about 6,100 square feet
• Resale: $410,000 median on 2,265 square feet, $189 a foot, median build year 2019

Most Justin resales are houses only a few years old, competing directly with new houses in the same subdivisions at the same price, with a warranty and incentives. The resale median fell from $435,000 in 2024 to $395,000 in 2026.

Builders are adding square footage

Builders here are doing what they're doing in Godley and Granbury: giving more house for the money.

The median new house grew by nearly 500 square feet in two years, while price per foot fell about 7% and new houses went from closing near list to closing about 8% below it. The sticker went up, but the value per foot went down. For anyone who bought new in Justin in 2023 or 2024, today's builder is offering a bigger house at a lower price per foot, and that's what a buyer will compare with.

On the few acreage lots, a different market

Only about 10% of Justin's sales sat on an acre or more. Those are a different product, and per-foot price rises with the land:

Land sales

Justin had 51 closed land sales over the same three years, at a median of $355,000 on 5.06 acres.

With so few sales, the land trend isn't measurable. Most of what trades is larger tracts, at a median of about five acres, and land here costs more per acre than in Decatur or Springtown. That's consistent with builders putting Justin's new houses on small lots.

About 45% of land parcels that came to market never sold, and 67% of the ones that did were bought with cash. The median land sale took 67 days. Price acreage from closed land sales, not from what's listed.

What it costs

• Median close $400,000 on 2,180 square feet, about $182 per foot
• Median lot 6,970 square feet; median build year 2024
• Median 41 days on market at 95.8% of original list
• 72% of sales carried seller concessions, at a $10,000 median
• Effective property tax rate on resales about 1.77%
• 87% carry HOA dues, at a $425 median
• 41% of new-construction buyers used FHA
• Parcel-level failure rate 18.8%

Nearly all of Justin is Northwest ISD (1,437 of 1,457 site-built sales). The largest developments are Shale Creek, Reatta Ridge, Timberbrook, Treeline, Wildflower Ranch and The Preserve.

Manufactured homes are 65 sales, about 4%, mostly on acreage. Twelve were entered in the MLS as "single family." Controlling for size, lot and age, they sell about 42% below comparable site-built houses. Compare them only with each other.

How Justin compares

Across most of the markets I've measured north and south of Fort Worth, the same pattern keeps showing up. Where builders are putting up houses on small subdivision lots, values are falling, and recent resales fall with them. Where the new construction comes with land, it's holding. Justin is on the small-lot side of that line.

This isn't just a local quirk. I tested it across 19 markets and 40,703 closed sales: the size of the lot predicts which houses are losing value better than the town does, with subdivision lots down about 1% a year and acreage up about 1%.

What I look at in a Justin house

• What the builders are selling today in the same subdivision, including size and net price after incentives.
• The date of the comparable sales. In a market falling about 2% a year on resales, an eighteen-month-old sale overstates value by about 3%.
• The HOA and what it covers, since nearly nine in ten houses carry one.
• The tax figure, which on new construction usually reflects the lot before the house was finished.
• Builder warranty status on a house a few years old: what's left and whether it transfers.

If you're selling in Justin

Your competition is a brand-new house in your own subdivision at about your price, often bigger and with incentives. Price from what the builder is getting today, net of concessions, not from what you paid. What you can offer that the builder can't is a finished yard, window coverings, upgrades already installed, and no wait. Make those visible.

On pre-listing work, the order matters more than the budget. What to fix before you list, and in what order tests fourteen improvements against 33,000 closings. If the work needs doing and the cash is tied up, Compass Concierge covers it up front and is repaid at closing.

Buying or selling in Justin

Fifteen hundred sales, three-quarters built this decade, new and resale at the same price, builders adding square footage and discounting from list, and resale values falling about 2% a year.

What I can tell you is what the most recent closed sales in your subdivision actually support, and what the builder down the street is really getting.

Browse active listings in this price range, or call or text (682) 207-4310, or send me a note.

Figures are medians and model results from NTREIS listings and closed sales with a Justin address for the three years ending September 2026, reported in aggregate. "New construction" means a house sold in or within a year after its build year. School attendance boundaries, tax rates, HOA dues, financing rules and market conditions change. Confirm current figures for a specific address before relying on them. Nothing here is an appraisal or a valuation of any particular property.