Arlington

Arlington is the largest city between Fort Worth and Dallas, and the biggest market I've measured outside Fort Worth itself. It's also mostly built out: the median house here was built in 1984, and only about one sale in twenty is new construction. So Arlington answers a different question from the new-construction towns to the south: what happens to an older, established resale market over three years?

Over the three years ending September 2026, Arlington produced 9,200 closed sales at a median of $330,000. I'm a Texas broker and a Certified Residential Appraiser. Here is what those sales show.

Single-family is soft. Condos are falling hard.

Controlling for size, lot and build year, Arlington values overall are down 1.11% a year, at p < 0.0001. That result holds with build-decade controls (−1.14%) and on houses built before 2020 (−1.09%).

But it mixes three very different products:

Single-family houses are softening slowly, about 0.7% a year. That's a mild decline, similar to the older parts of Fort Worth, and nothing like the 3–6% falls in the south-side new-construction towns.

Condos are a different story. The median Arlington condo sold for $170,500 in late 2023 and $139,900 in 2026. Price per foot fell from $187 to $158. Marketing time went from about a month to nearly two. Nearly a third of condo units that came to market didn't sell.

The buyer pool explains part of it. 39% of condo buyers paid cash, and only 4% used FHA, against 22% FHA for the city as a whole. FHA financing on a condo generally depends on the complex being approved for it, and when most complexes aren't, a large part of the entry-level buyer pool can't buy. Add monthly dues at a median of about $336, and the condo market is competing for a small group of buyers. Most of the condo sales are in 76011 and 76006, in complexes like the Cloisters, Arlington Oaks and Oak Creek.

If you own a condo here, check the complex's FHA status, its reserves and any planned assessments before you price. Those decide the buyer pool.

Neighbourhood by neighbourhood

On single-family houses only, so condos don't distort the result, the ZIP codes split into steady and softening:

Three ZIPs carry the single-family decline: 76018, 76014 and 76002, all in the east and southeast of the city. The rest are flat or not measurably moving. The age of the housing doesn't explain it: 76010, with a median build year of 1957, is flat, and 76002, built around 2004, is falling.

If you looked at all property types together, 76006 and 76011 would show large declines too. They don't on single-family. Those two ZIPs are where the condos are, and the condo decline pulls their averages down.

Viridian

The one large new development is Viridian, in north Arlington, in Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD. Its 647 sales ran at a $525,000 median, built around 2020, at about $239 a foot, well above the city's $180. Viridian is also softening, about 1.3% a year (p = 0.008), and new-construction price per foot across Arlington fell from about $232 in 2023 to $220 in 2026.

Viridian is also why the Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD part of Arlington looks 25–30% more expensive. Nearly every HEB ISD sale in Arlington is in Viridian, so the district and the development are the same houses. That's not a school premium I can measure.

School districts

Most of Arlington is Arlington ISD (6,468 site-built sales), with Mansfield ISD (1,569) in the south and Kennedale ISD (459) in the southwest. Controlling for size, lot, build decade and date:

• Kennedale ISD shows no difference from Arlington ISD (+0.6%, not significant).
• Mansfield ISD comes out about 2.7% lower (p < 0.001).

The Mansfield ISD result is the opposite of what many buyers would expect. I wouldn't read it as a school effect either way. It's a small difference, and the Mansfield ISD part of Arlington is one contiguous area in the south of the city, so the district and the location overlap. The practical point is simpler: there's no measurable premium for a Mansfield ISD address inside Arlington, so don't pay for one.

Water

Arlington had 137 waterfront sales, mostly on creeks and canals, with 23 true lakefront. Controlling for everything else, waterfront houses sold about 16% higher (p < 0.0001), excluding Viridian's lake lots. Lakewood, Interlochen and Waterway Park account for many of them. As in Granbury, the type of frontage matters, and a comparable set should match it.

What it costs

• Median close $330,000 on 1,855 square feet, about $180 per foot
• Median lot 7,579 square feet; median build year 1984
• Closed prices ran $70,000 to $3,500,000
• Median 26 days on market at 97.3% of original list; 23.3% under contract within a week
• 52% of sales carried seller concessions, at a $6,000 median
• Effective property tax rate on resales about 1.99%
• 27% carry HOA dues, at a $357 median
• 17% had a pool
• Parcel-level failure rate 15.7%

That speed is worth noticing. Arlington's median of 26 days and nearly one in four sales spoken for inside a week are faster than any market I've measured south of Fort Worth, though not quite as fast as Grapevine, Bedford or Euless. Values are softening, but houses priced from recent sales still sell quickly.

The stock is concentrated: 4,265 of 9,200 sales, 46%, were built in the 1970s and 1980s. At forty to fifty years old, most of those houses have been through at least two roofs and HVAC systems, and the original windows, plumbing and electrical panels are due or overdue.

I sold 3507 Palomino in Willow Ridge in 2025, a 1980 house of 1,662 square feet.

How Arlington compares

Arlington's single-family decline is small, and it isn't driven by builders. Only 7% of its sales were built this decade. That's a reminder that new construction explains a lot of what's happening on the south side, but not all of it. Older, established markets can soften on their own. Across Fort Worth, seventeen of thirty-six measurable ZIP codes are losing value, and Arlington's east side looks much like them.

What I look at in an Arlington house

• Single-family, townhouse or condo. They're three different markets moving at three different speeds.
• For a condo: FHA approval, reserves, dues and any planned special assessments.
• The ZIP code, since 76018 is falling 3% a year and 76017 next door is flat.
• On 1970s and 1980s houses: foundation, roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing and windows, most of which are on their second or third round.
• The school district, confirmed for the address, but not priced as a premium.
• Water frontage, and what kind.

If you're selling in Arlington

If you're selling a single-family house, the market is fast and only slightly soft. Price it from the last few months of sales in your ZIP code, not last year's, and it should go within a month.

If you're selling a condo, the market is much harder. Values have dropped about 9% a year, a third of units don't sell, and most buyers pay cash. Know your complex's FHA status and financials before you list, and price from the most recent sales in your complex, because older ones will overstate what a buyer will pay.

On pre-listing work, the order matters more than the budget. What to fix before you list, and in what order tests fourteen improvements against 33,000 closings. If the work needs doing and the cash is tied up, Compass Concierge covers it up front and is repaid at closing.

Buying or selling in Arlington

Ninety-two hundred sales, forty-year-old houses selling in under a month, single-family values softening slowly, three east-side ZIP codes falling faster, and a condo market that's lost more than a sixth of its value in three years.

What I can tell you is what the closed sales on houses of your type, in your ZIP code actually support, and how much a comparable sale from last year needs adjusting.

Browse active listings in this price range, or call or text (682) 207-4310, or send me a note.

Figures are medians and model results from NTREIS listings and closed sales with an Arlington address for the three years ending September 2026, reported in aggregate. "New construction" means a house sold in or within a year after its build year. School attendance boundaries, tax rates, HOA dues, financing rules and market conditions change. Confirm current figures for a specific address before relying on them. Nothing here is an appraisal or a valuation of any particular property.